Who says Friday the 13th is unlucky. I closed a bank owned property yesterday without too much trouble. We had some issues with the condo association manager, but we will get over that. The weather here in Orlando is absolutely perfect with lots of sunshine and temperatures in the 80's. I actually received two checks back from my mortgage company because my escrow balances were too high. That escrow reconciliation also caused my payments to drop over $360/mo between the two houses.
The big news is that I have a negotiator for one of my Countrywide short sales. So, I can't wait for Monday to get into the office and speak with her to make sure I get her everything she needs to complete her file and start working this deal out. Well today is looking good, and I am going to work in the yard and enjoy the beautiful weather we have here in Orlando. If you want to see any of the properties I have for sale, just give me a call at 407-924-7670.
David Welch, Real Estate Optimist
I know I am writing about the updated statistics a lot this month, and I am apologize. It has just been very exciting to see the closed sales rolling in while the inventory keeps going down. As of this afternoon there have been 1,351 closed sales in March with a median price of $137,100. The median is very volatile, which I am sure you have noticed if you have been keeping up with my recent posts. With the number of sales that we have just a few more can swing the median price up or down a couple of thousand dollars pretty easily. We have been going back and forth between around $142,000 and $136,000, but mostly in the $137,000 range. The active listings are standing at 21,688 which is down around 400 from last month, and that will drop further as all the end of the month expired listings hit tonight. Pending sales continue to rise with 4,947 properties currently under contract.
Well, I have to go check on a contract I submitted yesterday. The other agent said there were problems with the scanned image. If I can get that one through, I will have another bank owned property off the streets. How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time. How do you solve the foreclosure problem? One sale at a time.
My website had taken a drop in the google standing recently, but I am happy to say that I am back on the rise. If you google "Orlando Real Estate", I back up near the top of page two. My Orlando Real Estate Blog remains "Number 1" on google. Check it out. Just google "Orlando Real Estate Blog". You can now follow me on Twitter. Go to www.twitter.com/realtyoptimist or www.davidwelch.com/realtyoptimist. You can also follow my blog at www.wordpress.com/realestateoptimist. If you prefer facebook, I am there too. In fact, look over your left shoulder. I'm right there. Just kidding about the over your should thing, but you can find me all over the internet these days.
Orange County Public Schools are on Easter Break this week. It is nearly perfect weather for it. I believe we are expected to have highs in the eighties with just a slight chance of rain later in the week. We spent some time with some good friends of ours yesterday after church hanging out by the pool. Then we had dinner together last night out at Universal City Walk at the Hard Rock Cafe. It was one of the most relaxing days I have had in a while.
It is back to work for me today though. I have updated information I have to send into the Countrywide short sale department. Make sure if you are working a short sale that you have the most recent two years tax returns, the most recent two months bank statements and pay stubs. Each month as the process progresses get update bank statements and pay stubs, and since April 15 is rapidly approaching don't forget to get the latest tax returns as well. Keep your short sale packages updated. Overall sales in Orlando for March are looking really good. As of this morning nearly 1,200 have already closed. We will almost certainly finish the month over 1,400 and it is only March. It looks like we may have a very active summer if this keeps up. Last June and July were the last times we closed over 1,400 sales in a month, and we are already over the 1,120 closed sales from last March. Inventory is also down 385 from February's 22,168 to 21,783 so is the median price at about $139,500.
Finally, Twitter. I am the first to admit that I don't completely get it, but my pastor David Loveless is doing it to keep people tuned into what he is doing throughout the week at Discovery Church. You can follow him or follow me at Twitter, just search by name. Or you can check out my twitter page at www.davidwelch.com/realtyoptimist.
I just got set up on Twitter. Last Sunday my pastor David Loveless offered to start tweeting on twitter as a new way to get look inside his daily walk. Believe it or not pastors are people too. Anyway, I have read so much lately about Twitter, and have been meaning to get myself setup and the offer to follow him around this week just put me over the top. So check it out. If you like you can follow me, and maybe I can follow you too. You can either go to my webpage on www.davidwelch.com which is www.davidwelch.com/realtyoptimist or go straight to www.twitter.com/realtyoptimist. The Twitter name would not allow for my signature Real Estate Optimist, so I had to abbreviate it a little. I also have it linked to my facebook to keep my status updated.
A very good friend of mine with another real estate company was in a social media class this morning. He said that the person teaching the class was showing them local examples using ActiveRain and LinkdIn. My buddy called me to let me know when they searched those two that your's truly popped up as one of the top results for each one. I also let him know that if you google "Orlando Real Estate Blog" I have the top spot and the number four spot today with my www.davidwelch.featuredblog.com blog and my www.realestateoptimist.com blogsite. I can always use the company, so if you would like to follow along, check out my Twitter page. I promise to try and keep it interesting, informative and optimistic.
I am not in the office right now, so forgive me for not having the exact dates. Almost two months ago a customer of mine had me write an offer on a bank owned property here in Orlando. At the time the property was priced at $72,900. Our initial offer was $67,000 if I remember correctly. They came back and asked for highest and best, stating that there were multiple offers. He increased his offer to $68,000. A few days later they came back again and asked for highest and best and he raised his offer to $69,000. A few more days went by, and you guessed it they asked for highest and best. He kept his offer the same at $69,000. After several days they came back again requesting the buyer to sign a statement that he understood that there were multiple offers and that $69,000 was his highest and best offer. He signed it and sent it back in.
After several more days they sent a counter offer to my buyer accepting the price of $69,000 but extending the closing date three weeks. I believe he wanted to close in mid March. He accepted the counter offer, but we had to wait for the bank to prepare their addendum for him to actually sign off. After about two weeks, they dropped their price in the MLS to $68,900. While this was $100 less than my buyer had already agree to pay, it was $4,000 less than the price they had when he first offered on the property. Naturally, he wanted to drop his offer. They dropped $4,000 so did he to $65,000. They came back and stated there were once again multiple offers and they wanted highest and best. He raised his back up to $68,000. They sent us a counter offer accepting $68,000 but pushed the closing out another two weeks. He, of course, accepted this since it saved him $1,000 from his original agreement. They were going to prepare their addendum and get it to us for the buyer to sign off.
Then two weeks ago, completely out of the blue, the bank comes back to us and counters his offer at $53,500 and pushed the closing back another two weeks. Yes $14,500 less than what he had already agreed to pay for the property. Naturally, he said yes, but we had to wait for them to prepare their addendums for him to sign. As I have been doing through this entire process, I followed up with the listing agent to find out what was going on with the addendum. They told me the bank had kicked it out because the approval letter for my buyer was now too old. (By the way, he was approved through the bank's approved lender.) He called the bank, had his approval updated, and we resubmitted it the same day. Fast forward to today. I have just received notification that the bank has decided to put this property up for auction. This is why Realtors have been fighting to keep banks out of real estate.
For the fourth month in a row the number of distressed properties and their impact on the Orlando real estate market appear to be holding steady. Of course new properties are coming on the market, but the number and percentage market share are remaining pretty stable. As of this afternoon there were 21,949 active listings posted in the MLS. Of that number, 1,606 are identified as bank owned properties. out of 8,299 total distressed properties. I identify distressed properties as those labled as 3rd party approval, pre-foreclosure, in foreclosure, short sale and bank owned. This may or may not capture all the distressed properties, but it is the best proxy I have. The important thing to note is that they make up about 37.8% of the active listings. As a percentage of the market, they have been between 37-38% since at least December.
Likewise, pending sales continue to rise each month as the backlog of short sales continue to grow. The Orlando Regional Realtor Association numbers show 4,897 pending contract with total distressed properties making up 3,119 or 63.7% of the pending sales. Again, this number has been consistent for several months now, and is actually a bit lower. Of the those 1,342 are bank owned properties or about 27.4% of the total pending contracts. Pending sales are the best indicator of future closings, and so far in March there have been 958 closed sales with a median price of $138,250. With a high percentage of homes closing at the end of the month I think this number will be close to 1,400 when the month is final. Of that 958 563 or 58.8% are distressed properties. Over 45% of the closed properties 432 are bank owned meaning only 131 or 13.7% are "other distressed". Other distressed are primarily short sales. These short sales make up about 30.5% of the active listings and 36.3% of the pending sales but only 13.7% of the closed transactions.
Senator,
As former HUD Secretary, I am sure that you can understand the importance of the housing market to the overall economy. Everyone has been pointing fingers and trying to place the blame for our current economic situation, but the truth is that everybody had some hand in getting us to where we are today. Fear and greed dominated the real estate market creating a huge run up in prices and over-building. Things were progressing at an unsustainable pace.
We stand today with a tremendous oversupply of housing which has caused the precipitous drop in home values. I recall Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan saying that there was an additional $1,000 per year in consumer spending for every $10,000 in home equity created by the run up. Here in Orlando prices are off $120,000 from their peak. While I don't know if Mr. Greenspans numbers still hold true, it is apparent that consumer confidence and spending have dropped with home values.
My suggestion, somewhat radical, is to attack the problem from the supply side. Pumping cash into banks has yet to get them to free up lending, in fact they have tightened requirements. They have become extremely inefficient at handling foreclosures, short sales and even making new loans. There are roughly 3.6 million homes for sale in a marketplace that suggest a balanced supply should be about 2.4 million homes. There are also about 1 million foreclosures in the market. My suggestion is for the government to purchase these undervalued assets (homes not securities). Do not rent them out; do not make them public assistance housing; hold them. Many will need some repairs, and all will need regular maintenance.
This will stabilize the real estate market, and inject billions into the banks that hold these properties. At the same time, it frees these banks from having to manage them. I estimate that $300 billion should be enough to purchase and hold these homes for up to two years. They can be sold on the open market as each local market is able to re-absorb them. It is not a bailout, and in the end will have a much lower cost than just giving the banks more tax payer dollars to squander. It is a radical idea, but it addresses the problem at its core.
Wouldn't it be cool if the two Senators from Florida, (neighbors) could reach across the aisle and make this plan work.
Sincerely,David W. Welch
Last fall banks were bailed out, and what did they do? They slashed the prices on their foreclosed properties. This cause a surge in real estate sales, but drove prices down. More money has been poured into shoring up the banks balance sheets to stimulate lending. That is not the result so far. In fact, banks have continually tightened credit terms making it more difficult for even good borrowers to get credit. Tighter credit, albeit at lower interest rates, and the banks slashing REO prices have kept the sales up. Is it really helping the real estate market or the economy to keep pressuring homeowner equity lower and lower. I have read estimates that up to 20% of homeowners are now into negative equity positions. This is a direct result of the bank bailouts. The focus has been solely on the demand side of the equation creating a downward spiral in the economy.
Banks cut the REO prices, values drop, equity drops, homeowners feel more pressured to sell. The loss of homeowner equity has more to do with the economy than you think. It not only effects short sales and foreclosures, but consumer spending. I remember a report by Alan Greenspan a few years ago that for every $10,000 in homeowner equity we spend an extra $1,000 per year. Well values here in Orlando have dropped about $120,000 from the peak which should translate into $12,000 less per year in consumer spending. I don't know that those spending numbers hold true with such a drastic drop, but I think everyone can agree that consumer spending has been down along with consumer confidence.
If the treasury really wants to make an impact for a lot less money, just buy up all the bank REO's. Take one million homes off the market. That would stabilize the real estate market, pump billions into the banks and wipe out the mortgages that are already foreclosed. The banks don't have to waste so many resources which are already inefficiently handling the situation. By taking the homes off the market real estate would return to a balanced market stopping the freefall in prices. Homeowners will regain some confidence, which might actually result in more homes coming off the market. If prices stop going down, I believe we would actually see a drop in the number of short sales on the market. This would further free up banks from another money losing inefficient process. They might actuallly be able to put their resources back to work making loans and getting them closed. It frees up the whole system that is currently being clogged by REO's and short sales. The tri-county area around Orlando currently has over 5,000 pending sales that are slow to get closed because of the bank owned properties and short sales pending bank approval.
The best part is that $300 billion should pick up a million properties and still have money left over to cover carrying costs on the properties for up to two years. The government would be making an investment not a bail out. The money would be recouped over the next couple of years as the properties are resold as they can be reabsorbed into the market. The newest plan that is coming out of the Treasury Department is looking to spend up to $100 billion to try to get private investors to purchase up to another $500 billion in "toxic assets". Estimates say it could go to $1 trillion, and much of the risk comes back on the government if it does not work. All of the current bailout help investors not homeowners. My plan helps every homeowner at a fraction of the cost.
You would never guess that we were in a recession by the crowds at the Winter Park Sidewalk Art Festival this weekend. I finally got over there yesterday, and it was packed. If you have never been there, it runs through the park for several blocks with the streets closed down. It was jammed everywhere you turned. All the artists had tons of people at their tents, and the "food court" area was packed. The streets and sidewalks were crowded everywhere. My guess is that this years festival was a huge success. My favorite pieces were the life size grizzly bear, and horse made out of nails.
While the weekend was very sunny and warm, today we are getting a little break with temperatures in the mid seventies. It has been raining this morning, but should be lifting as the day goes on. For those of you where there is still snow on the ground and gray skies, we have a nice change for you down here in Orlando. You deserve a spring break, so come on down and enjoy the weather. Speaking of spring break, Orange County Public Schools finish up on Thursday this week with spring break starting on Friday. I'm sure the kids will be enjoying the break.
Look for a new listing this evening here on my Orlando real estate blog. A terrific buy in Lake of the Woods. A three bedroom two and a half bath with two car garage and nearly 1,900 sq feet of living, not to mention a big screened porch. Look for it to be priced thousands below recent sales. The best part, is that it is not a short sale.
This is the first weekend of spring 2009, and you just could not ask for any better place to be than Orlando. The sky is blue the breeze is cool on this warm sunny day. My wife and I went out for a run around Lake Baldwin, and everybody was out this morning. The baseball diamonds at Blue Jacket Park are packed with spring games, and the Winter Park Sidewalk Art Festival is in full swing. I posted about the art festival yesterday, and someone that went yesterday said it was hoppin'. They had never seen so many people at the festival on a Friday. I think everyone is just excited to get out and do something fun. It is a great way to take your mind off of everything going on these days.
On a business note, I have already had over 1,000 views of my blog www.RealEstateOptimist.com today. I am leaving shortly to meet with two different people interested in selling their homes, and I will be putting another property on the market Monday. Check back at www.davidwelch.com Monday afternoon, for pictures and details. It is a drop dead gorgeous 2/2 condo in Conway. Located in Sienna Place directly across the street from Shenandoah Elementary School - one of the best elementary schools in Orange County. It features cherry stained "see your reflection" hard wood floors, cherry stained cabinets with black granite counter tops, brand new stainless steel GE kitchen appliances, new carpet in the bedrooms, fresh paint, new blinds, new light fixtures, contemporary large tile in the bathrooms, and brand new full size washer and dryer. The best part is owner financing is avaliable.
I was just checking a few numbers for March, and the inventory looks like it might be creeping up just a bit in anticipation of the spring selling season. The number of distressed properties seems to be holding at about the same level. In the tri-county area there are about 9,400 homes that are identified as short sales, in foreclosure, pre-foreclosure, bank owned or requiring 3rd party approval. That number has been pretty steady since last month. The number of pending sales in the same area has risen to over 5,200 which is just crazy. So far this month, there have been 733 closed sales by members of the Orlando association with 1,844 pending sales that are expected to close before the end of this month. A lot of those will not close, but even if only 1/3 of them close we are looking at about 1,400 closed sales this month. We did not hit 1,400 until the peak months of June and July last year. Of the 733 closed so far the median price is $139,900. Look for that to end up lower by months end because the median asking price of the 1,844 pending with expected closings in March is $134,900. So we could see yet another big drop. Along with the price drops, interest rates have also taken a tumble to below 5%.
The Winter Park Sidewalk Art Festival starts today. If you are anywhere in the Orlando, Winter Park area, you have got to check this out sometime in the next couple of days. There a lots of great local artists, and of course great food. There really is something for everyone at this annual event. I expect this year will probably be one of the biggest yet. They are celebrating 50 years of the festival. Come out and enjoy terrific weather, interesting art and artists, great food and a relaxing time.
Baldwin Park held a smaller festival last weekend, and it was a blast going around and checking out what the different artists had available. There are some really creative people here in Orlando. Just another reason to want to live here. The arts are alive and well in Central Florida. Support the arts, buy an original piece this weekend.
I am writing this to my Baldwin Park neighbors, to encourage you to contact our state representatives and governor to get serious about fully funding education. It looks like now they are expecting Orange County Public Schools to take $240,000,000 out of their budget. Trust me, I believe all government can trim some fat from their budgets, but this is cutting to the bone. Florida has had a not so hot reputation for schools, yet Orange county has made strides to improve as a district. These kinds of cuts will greatly decrease the effectiveness of our public education system at a time when public eduation is paramount to the success of our country’s economic future.
Here are the e-mail addresses of our state representative Dean Cannon dean.cannon@myfloridahouse.gov, our state senator is Gary Siplin at siplin.gary.web@flsenate.gov and the governor Charlie Crist can be reached at Charlie.Crist@myflorida.com.
Our students cannot afford for us to be silent on this issue
David Welch
The first time home buyer tax credit has really started to take hold. The fact that you can claim it on your 2008 taxes makes it even better. Cash is hard to come by these days, so the possibility of putting up to $8,000 in your pocket after buying a home is huge. Orlando real estate is still the number one search people are using to find my website, but first time home buyer is definitely a strong number two. That is why I have three pages on my website devoted to the first time home buyer.
After discussing financing and what they are looking for in a home, I like to spend some time talking about the current market. The first thing buyers need to know is that there are some challenges in purchasing even in this terrific buyer's market. First, even with all the inventory that is out there, the good properties that are priced well are still getting multiple offers. The average buyer is writing four offers, before getting a home under contract. The bank owned properties many times are good deals, but not always the best deal, so don't limit yourself to just foreclosures. Short sales often have less competition, but they take a lot longer (several months) to close. If you do get a contract on a bank owned property, expect delays in closing. Every bank owned property I have sold has been delayed at least a couple of weeks. Do not expect to move on the day of closing. If you are getting financing or you are purchasing a short sale or bank owned property, the closing may not be finalized until the next business day. That means if you sign on Friday, it may not be final until Monday afternoon. Some banks won't sign until they have received all of your signed closing documents, and your lender won't fund the loan until the bank signs.
In a nutshell, start early and expect the process to take longer. Every market is different, even within areas of town, the type of property and price range, but everything seems to be taking a bit longer these days. If you are getting FHA or VA financing expect five to six weeks to close. Anyway, I have been working with a number of first time buyers, and thought I would share some of my observations. I hope this was helpful. If you are a first time home buyer in the Orlando area, I would love to help you find your first home. It is definitely something to be excited about, and it is worth any extra waiting or work that it might take.
I just wanted to plug the business of a friend and great customer of mine. Visiting Angels is a fantastic service for people with all types of home health needs.
Visiting Angels - www.visitingangels.com6220 S Orange Bloosm Trl # 194, Orlando - (407) 208-1008
It has been my pleasure to work with Gary and his wife Jennefer a number of times over the last several years. Last year I even had a chance to work with Jennefer's parents from NYC. Most recently Gary referred one of his team members to me. She and her husband are looking to purchase their first home. He is currently on active duty in Afghanistan, but is due back in the states shortly. I am honored to be helping them with their purchase, and I am always excited when one of my customers thinks enough of me to refer me to their family and friends.
Read today's post in your best Irish brogue.
Happy St. Patrick's Day. Don't forget to wear your green today. If it's a pot 'o gold your lookin for, check out 1112 Brant Pt in Spring Isle or 3810 Marsh Lilly or even 1910 & 1912 E. Kaley.
The name Welch is actually traced back more than a thousand years to Ireland. It means man from Wales.
I have seen a few people searching for Baldwin Park foreclosures, and thought I would do a little research. In the tri-county area there are 23,632 homes for sale with 9,396 of them in distress. I define distressed properties as those identified as: 3rd part approval required, pre-foreclosure, in-foreclosure, bank owned, and short sale. Overall in the tri-county area the distressed properties make up just about 40% of the available properties. that number has been fairly steady after creeping up pretty steadily most of last year. It is actually down slightly from the beginning of the year by about 200 homes.
Of the sold homes, last month about 58% were distressed properties in February which is just slightly higher than the 57% in January. So far in March about 57% of the closed sales are distressed. So this is also staying somewhat consistent after ramping up through 2008. Pending sales are also remaining consistent with about 67% of them in distress. I am also happy to see that so far this month there are 492 closed sales in the Orlando area. It looks like we could see 1,400 or more closed sales in March. We did not see that many sales in 2008 until June.
Back to Baldwin Park and the foreclosure or distressed market in my neighborhood. Of the 128 active listings 28 are distressed or 22%. There are 15 or 43% distressed properties out of 35 pending. Of the 14 sales closed in February 5 or 36% were designated as distressed. Overall Baldwin Park is about 200 basis points (20 percentage points) lower than the rest of the market with respect to the percentage of distressed properties.
Active 22% compared to 40%, Pending 43% compared to 67% and closed sales 36% compared to 57%.
I think that most sellers at least give consideration to interviewing more than one agent before listing their home. First, it gives them a second or even third opinion of the value of their home. Sometimes those opinions vary quite a bit, but each agent should at least give them some data on recent sales activity in their neighborhood to support their conclusion. In the end the seller is going to decide at what price they wish to market their property. Second, it gives them a chance to hear what services the different agents and brokerages have to offer along with their marketing plan. Of course, finally, it gives them a chance to discuss the cost of those services. In the end the seller can balance the experience, service and cost of each of the agents to determine the value that they offer. The agent providing the highest value usually gets the listing.
Buyers, I find often just bump into an agent, because they call on one of their listings. The relationship between many buyers and agents is perceived to be less formal since there is rarely a buyer broker agreement signed by the parties. What some buyers find is that the agent seems to treat the relationship with less importance as well. Recently, a buyer that was referred to me by a very good customer of mine told me that the last agent she was working with just did not seem to be working for her. The agent told her to go drive around and find the houses herself, because she was not getting paid to do that. When I heard this it blew me away. How can this person have any business at all with that type of approach.
When I am working with buyers, I try to understand what they are looking for, where they are looking, what their price range is, and what their expectations are. We have to work together to make sure all of these needs are aligned, so we are spending our time looking in the right place for the right home that stays within your budget. If we take the time to talk about this up front, it really helps us to be successful in finding the right homes to look at. Once I have an understanding of your needs and wants, I search for homes that will work for you, and set up the showings for us to go together and tour the homes. When you find the one you want, I will pull up comparable sales in the neighborhood, and give you my opinion of the value of the home. I will help you write an offer, and give you suggestions to help get your offer accepted. I will also be working with your lender to make sure we write an offer that works best for your financial situation. I can recommend inspectors, arrange for surveys and appraisals, and work with the title company to make arrangements for closing.
The best part is that I provide all these services at no additional charge to you. The seller's agent makes an offer of compensation to buyers representatives for bringing your contract on their listing. If you have more questions about buying please check out my buyer's pages like www.firstimebuyer.info.
I closed one file today, and I have nine more that are waiting. One should close at the end of next week, then the rest are scheduled for April. It looks like next month is going to get busy. I only have four active listings left, then I will be out of business when I get those sold. I have a terrific value in Spring Isle in Avalon Park. This home is move in ready for only $269,900, and it is not a short sale. Give me a call to take a look at it this weekend. If you like it we can get a response to your offer right away, because there is not third party authorization. I also have another home in Avalon Park at 3810 Marsh Lilly, that is a regular sale. Let me know if you would like to see that home this week.
I should be closing a transaction today, but we have a few hiccups with the condo association management company. We are waiting on the financial statements and a final HUD. I'll be sitting by my computer, checking my e-mail all afternoon. Keep your fingers crossed. I have another one next week that is pretty much in the same status except there is a mortgage involved adding just a little more complexity.
For years banks have been trying to get into the real estate business, and I can think of no better argument than the current situation against that ever happening. Inefficient does not begin to describe what we are dealing with to get bank owned properties closed. If you read my post yesterday about short sales, that is another story completely. Inefficient does not begin to describe it.
I am currently working on two Countrywide short sales, and I have to say that I have yet to determine that any kind of procedure exists. I have faxed a short sale package on one of my listings four times, and each time I have been given a different excuse as to why they don't seem to have it. I have been trying to open a file with them for the short sale since February 11, 2009. I sent the package to them again on February 18 after being told that they were really busy at the beginning of the month and a lot of the files were lost. The next time I called, I was told that I had to re-send the third party authorization because they could not speak to me. I re-sent that, then on March 3, 2009 I sent the package again when I was told that they had the third party authorizaiton, but the file had been closed. They said the file was closed because I did not return their call that they never made. On March 10, 2009 I called and was told they still did not have a file in the short sale department, but I should re-send the package because they had gotten very behind with their scanning of documents. I was also advised to call back today in case the fax from last week was finally processed into the system. Today, March 11, 2009 , I called and was told that the file was opened back on March 6, 2009, but there is nothing in it. This time I was advised that their fax machine has been dropping faxes over 20 pages. I was told to resend the package (38 pages) as two faxes. I was also advised to call back tomorrow in case the fax I sent yesterday actually went through.
If you are working with Countrywide on a short sale make sure you put the account number on every page of the package. I put it right at the top of each page very prominently. Make sure you are sending it to fax number 888-491-4947. Before you send the package, make sure you send just the third party authorization to the third party authorization fax number which is 805-520-5019. They recommend sending this in two days before you send the package to the short sale department. Make sure you include the third party authorization in the package you send to the short sale department, because their system does not have access to the third party authorization department system. After you send the package call early and call often. The phone number is 866-880-1232.
I hope you find some of this useful, but the only information I know actually works are the phone and fax numbers. Personally, I think they need to take their TARP funds and buy some more toner for their fax. I know that I am the RealEstateOptimist, but it is getting difficult to be optimistic about Countrywide's ability to handle short sales.
Official numbers for Orlando real estate sales out.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/orl-prices-down-february-home-sales-up-031009,0,1255729.story
Despite tightening loan requirements and the logjam of short sales and REO's, Orlando still had a huge increase in closed sales in February along with a big jump in contracts pending. I will upload the full report with all the statistics on my website at www.DavidWelch.com/PressRelease. Notice the graphs and the trends we are starting to see here in Orlando.
The official results should come out today. They seem to have been running a bit late the last couple of months, but check back here this afternoon. If they are available, I will have them for you. The two big things you will see are a big increase in the number of sales and pending contracts, and a slight decline in both inventory and median price.
Consider this if you are still waiting to purchase a home. Interest rates are down around 5%. Between the lower interest rates and prices now below pre-boom levels, housing affordability is extremely high. The government just established a $75 billion program to keep people in their homes, that should mean fewer distressed properties coming on the market. It may evern mean that some will take their homes off the market that are currently trying to short sale. The distressed properties make up the majority of the homes going under contract and the majority of closed sales. If fewer of these properties come to market and the ones on the market are selling faster, they will run out. I have already seen them plateau here in Orlando, and in fact the inventory has declined very slightly from around 9,600 to around 9,400.
Yesterday, Warren Buffet said the economy "fell off a cliff" which got the big headline. One of the other things he said in that interview was that inflation is almost certain to work it's way back into the picture. In other words, the low interest rates may not stick around very long. I believe that we will see rates starting to creep up by summer, and we could be back to rates closer to 6% by the end of the year. This could especially be true if home sales continue to rise. We are already on a six month streak here in Orlando of year over year increases. February was nearly 30% higher than last year. Keep another thing in mind. Builders are not building, and prices will have to come up before they will start building to be profitable. I think we are getting close to a tipping point.
I will have a lender available to answer your questions about financing, assistance and loan programs. I can give you an update on the market here in the Orlando area, and fill you in on the first time home buyer tax credit. Please sign up for either Saturday morning March 21, 2009 from 10:00-11:00 or Monday evening March 23, 2009 from 7:00-8:00. If I don't get enough interest, I'll try some other dates. Just click on sign up link and send me an e-mail with your e-mail address, name and phone number. More than likely I will hold this at my office Remax 200 Realty at 954 S. Orlando Ave., Winter Park, FL 32789.
Sign up for one of the two dates. Just click sign up and give me your e-mail, phone number and preferred date.
Our public schools here in Florida will be taking the FCAT this week. This is the big test that determines if students are promoted and factors heavily in how our schools are graded as well. Orange County Public Schools have achieved an overall grade of A, while some of the individual schools still have a long way to go.
Good luck Glenridge Lions and Winter Park Wildcats.
There was an article on the front page of the Orlando Sentinel yesterday that states that there are currently 45,000 homes in some stage of foreclosure. These are default notices not just foreclosure proceedings. I checked the Bureau of Labor Statistics and currently there are almost 87,000 unemployed which is up from our low of around 30,000 back at the end of 2005 beginning of 2006. That was pretty much an unsustainably low number given our population growth at the time. A number in the 40,000 range would be more typical for the size of our work force. That means about 45,000 additional people are out of work and probably having difficulty making their mortgage payment.
In the past, people would have done whatever they needed to do to make those payments, but I am afraid that the latest $75 billion plan along with other aspects of the bailout may create a disinsentive for people to make their payments. I am just concerned that there is a growing feeling of entitlement to a bailout. I feel very badly for everyone that is affected by the current economic situation. Unfortunately, I believe much of what has already been done is actually pushing home prices down more. My plan that I have been blogging about is simple and in the end would cost far less. Just buy up all the foreclosures. If something is done about the over supply of homes on the market, you will see a rapid turn around. Buy them and hold them until the market can re-absorb them. Banks are overwhelmed trying to manage them, the courts are overwhelmed trying to process them, they are slowing down the rest of the organized real estate market. Oh yes, they are driving the values, real and perceived, down as well.
The best part is that this is not a bailout, it is not some kind of corporate welfare, and the government is purchasing assets at below market values. That is called an investment. If the Fed can manage money supply, why can't the housing supply be managed as well. The foreclosures are the difference in our markets, and they are easy to identify and control. Nobody likes the $75 billion plan, just take a look at the markets this last couple of weeks. Polls already show that the vast majority feel like this plan is not fair to the 90% that are struggling to make their payments. We need to help the people having difficulty, but this is not the way. Take the money and buy up all the foreclosures. It stabilizes the housing market, injects billions into the banks while clearing their REO inventories, and clears the way for recovery of the housing market. Stop the entitlement mentality, and start addressing the problem at the core.
I have around 50 to 100 people a day coming to my website by searching for first time home buyer..."down payment assistance, FHA, tax credit, etc." I can have a lender available to answer your questions about financing, assistance and loan programs. I can give you an update on the market here in the Orlando area, and fill you in on the first time home buyer tax credit. Please sign up for either Saturday morning March 21, 2009 from 10:00-11:00 or Monday evening March 23, 2009 from 7:00-8:00. If I don't get enough interest, I'll try some other dates. Just click on sign up link and send me an e-mail with your e-mail address, name and phone number. More than likely I will hold this at my office Remax 200 Realty at 954 S. Orlando Ave., Winter Park, FL 32789.
If you are already working with another Realtor or lender, that is OK. This is meant to be an informational meeting only. Of course, I would love to have a room full of people that I can with the purchase of their first home. Sales have been picking up with six straight months of year over year improvement. Prices and interest rates are very low, in fact prices are at pre-boom levels.
Now you can check my blog out at http://www.worldblogarchive.com/links.aspx
I was interviewed for an article in the Orlando Sentinel that came out last week. In the article, I said that Baldwin Park was not immune to the current housing situation in that prices had come down pretty significantly over the last year. After that I started looking at the inventory compared to sales, and there have been about 70 closed sales posted on the MLS in the last six months. There are 130 properties for sale, which means there is a little over 11 months supply of homes available for sale in the neighborhood. If you keep up on your real estate statistics, you already know that the benchmark we look for is a six months supply of homes. At a six months supply, we generally consider the market to be in balance. Considering that, it is understandable that prices have come down.
The plus side (since I am the Real Estate Optimist there has to be an upside) is that the overall Orlando market was sitting on over a 20 month supply of homes for sale. That number is getting better too with nearly 1,200 closed sales posted for February, which is about a 25% increase over last February. Additionally, the inventory of homes available dropped a few hundred to just over 22,000. That will drive the overall months supply to around 18, and I see that improving through the summer selling season.
If you read my posts, you may be wondering why the number of February sales keeps rising. The MLS rules say that closed sales are supposed to be posted in the MLS within two business days. So, all of February's sales should have been in by yesterday. Of course, a lot of sales occur at the end of the month and do not get posted until later. The Orlando Regional Realtor Association waits until the 5th of the month to pull the sales numbers to account for as many of the late entries as possible. I check the number starting about half way through the month to see where we are headed. I continue checking more frequently once the month is closed to provide the most updated information possible.
I had to post this real quick. Sales posted for February are at 1,063 which is almost 12% higher than 2008 February sales. If I remember correctly that is six months in a row of year over year sales increases. That tells me that 2009 will beat 2008 hands down. Buy now or forever hold your peace.
If you read my blog, and like the content (or even if you don't) please do me a favor. Link to my blog or google Orlando Real Estate find me (usually on page two) and click. That would really help me move up. If you don't like what I am saying, tell me why.
Thanks
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