I will have some early numbers for February later today.
www.davidwelch.com/orlandobuyers.
The numbers so far: Active 27,114 - this will go down tomorrow with all the withdrawn and expireds that hit at the end of the month. Pending 2,496 - this could go either way depending on how many homes get closed today, but I expect it will go down slightly. Sold 899 - usually we see a couple hundred more as they get recorded over the next few days. Median price $219,900 - I expect this will go down slightly but not much.
Check out the updated links on www.davidwelch.com. I have links that go straight to the inventory of foreclosures, plus homes between $150,000 and $200,000 and homes under $150,000 near downtown Orlando.
www.davidwelch.com
Buried in the business section is finally a positive article. Pending real estate sales are rising all over the state. This is the best indicator of future sales, since these are actual contracts on properties. Closings do seem to be taking a little longer to close. This is mostly because lenders are being a bit more careful, and lenders and title companies are operating with more lean staff. February was up over January, and March is up over February. I expect, since April is usually the start of the Spring selling season, it will be up again next month.
I suspect that with Monday being the end of the month and next week being spring break for Orange County Public Schools, we may still see quite a few closings in the next few days. Right now we stand at 809 closed sales in March with a median sales price of $217,500. The good news is that pending sales also continue to rise, and sit at 2,524 as of this afternoon. Unfortunately, there are some other rising numbers as well. The properties listed as bank owned or foreclosure is up to 1,579 and if you include those properties listed as pre-foreclosure that number goes up to 3,993. Active listings has risen a little bit as well to 27,212.
Anecdotally, I can tell you that I have had quite a number of inquiries on all my properties. You can check them out at the following addresses: www.3573GatlinPlace.info, www.13642Hawkeye.info, www.1558HuntersStand.info, www.1512Arcadia.info, www.1633Poe.info, www.8320Purcell.info. I showed Hunters Stand earlier today, and I am showing Poe this evening.
PS: One of those 809 sales that have closed so far was mine today. Yee Haw!!
I will be in Tallahassee along with about 5,000 other Realtors today and tomorrow. We will be lobbying our elected officials for home owners and home buyers across the state. Our top issues are property tax reform, homeowners insurance, and private property rights.
I was pleasantly surprised to see that the median sales price has picked back up from what I have been seeing. So far, it looks like there were 41 closed sales on Friday. There may be more added today and tomorrow. That brought the total closed sales for the month up to 603 with a median price of $220,000. If you follow my blog, you may recall that number has been running about $216,900. Looking at the sales expected to close by month's end, I do not expect that to be much higher. The median list price of the pending sales is about $219,900. It does appear though, that homes in that price range are not negotiating on price so much. Many are actually getting the asking price. They are probably paying some buyer closing costs though.
According to Metrostudy the inventory of new single family homes under construction and completed inventory totaled 8,732 units which is down considerably from a year ago. That number represents a 6.5 month supply based upon current sales. The 4th quarter is usually the slowest of the year, so hopefully things will pick up. If builders can get that inventory down to half that number by summer, we should see a real pick up in resales. Much of the feedback I am getting from agents showing my listings is the buyers are going for new homes because of the incentives. I have customers under contract with a builder that came off his price 10% to get the deal done. My customers are purchasing a brand new home for less than some of the re-sales on the market right now.
Pending sales keep climbing 2,488 as of this morning. If we can just get some of these closed. The median price is moving up slightly from what I saw last week. Sales closed so far this month are at 399 with a median sales price of $216,900.
I am not an economist, nor am I a banker, but I studied both in college, grad school and post grad. I know enough to at least say I have an educated opinion. I have also spoken with friends of mine that are in "the market", and banking. The conclusion we all seem to have is that these urgent actions actually are creating a negative response in the markets. It is my opinion that the rate cutting is contributing to both the tumbling dollar and the skyrocketing oil prices.
Without getting into a deep explanation, the reactions of the Fed are creating tremendous uncertainty. At home and abroad, people are concerned that the US is heading into a deep recession and banking crisis. One lesson I remember from my banking class had to do with the role of the Fed. The Fed has several tools in its toolbox for balancing the economy. The single most effective is rhetoric. What they say and how they say it has far reaching results.
The recent actions of the Fed have broadcast loud and clear their concerns about the US economy. I know I sell real estate, and my blog is titled www.RealEstateOptimist.com, but a more positive message like "Buy a Home - It's OK!" would be far more beneficial to the economy right now. Given household creation numbers I have seen for Orlando, we are selling only half the number of homes we should be selling. That means there are qualified people still waiting to buy. They are waiting because of their concerns about housing values and their jobs. If all of them would just start buying, both concerns would ease considerably.
Inflation numbers for February were down, adding to the expectation the Fed could drop rates again. While I appreciate the lower rate on my HELOC, I don't believe the world market likes to see our rates too low. It puts more downward pressure on the dollar. I also believe it fuels more speculation in the oil markets. (pun intended)
In my humble opinion the best way to get out of this downturn is for people to start buying homes. This economic slowdown is a direct result of peoples fears of the housing market. Please remember you buy a home to live in, and as a hedge against inflation. Your home should not be viewed as an investment vehicle that you can get into and out of like common stock.
Check out my activerain blog at www.activerain.com/realestateoptimist
Total pending sales in the tri-county area are up over 2,400. If we can get these closed that will go along way toward improvement in our market. www.davidwelch.com/orlandobuyers
Check out the article in today's Orlando Sentinel. It is actually pretty positive or at least has a more positive tone. I especially like the comments by Steve Moreira and Dr. Fishkind. There is no new information in the article that I have not already been bloggin about, but the tone of the story is important. I hope all the buyers sitting on the fence read this the same way I did. If you can buy, this is the time. www.davidwelch.com
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/orl-homesales1208mar12,0,6401886.story
Official numbers will be release later today, but they are pretty much going to say what I have been blogging. Inventory is remaining fairly steady, maybe down a little. Pendings are way up, in fact, today they are at 2,351. That is up more than 50% since the beginning of the year. The median price is up a tad. Interest rates remain very good continuing to make this a tremendous buying opportunity. When the official numbers come out, I'll post them right away. You can get them immediately by subscribing to my blog, or just check back often.
The day I launch www.RealEstateOptimist.com my address just for blogging about Orlando Real Estate, I learn that the FHA limit for the Orlando market has been increased to $353,750. Big deal right? Right! All the 100% mortgages have dried up, and Florida has been rated a declining market. FHA and VA are now the only 100% vehicles for financing your next home here in the Sunshine State. I just closed one of these FHA deals last month, and my buyer actually got money back at the closing table. That is not going to happen every time, but you can at least get into a home for just about nothing.
The really big thing about the new limit is that 74% of all the homes listed in the MLS (19,861) can be purchased using an FHA loan. That means 100% financing is back. You do have to structure the contract the correct way, and you have to have a cooperative seller. Of course with 26,808 homes for sale in the tri-county area, I think you will be able to find a cooperative seller or two. If you need an agent who knows how to write the contract, just call me at 407-924-7670. I would be glad to sell any one of the 19,861 homes that qualify for this financing. I've got a few of my own listed at www.davidwelch.com/featuredlistings
Today is the last day for sales to be updated in the MLS, and we have broker 900 for February with a median sales price of $223,000. That is about 150 more sales than the anemic January that we posted. The median price is also an improvement of $3,000. Pendings are still on the rise too. Subscribe to my blog to get updates e-mailed to you when I post them.
www.davidwelch.com/myblog
The Orlando Sentinel had an article speaking with "Legendary Builder" Arthur Rutenberg yesteday. This is a man who has seen the ups and downs of the Florida real estate market for something like 50 years. He says that the worst is behind us, and I believe him. As he mentions in the article yesterday nobody knows for sure when the bottom is until we are past it. I think we past it in January. Read my other recent blogs for my reasons why I think we are on the way back up. You can add Mr. Rutenberg's opinion to my reasons supporting a turnaround in the market.
The inventory level has dropped slightly as it does each month end as listings expire. The current number of homes listed for sale in the tri-county area is 26,728. The number of pending contracts continues to climb now up to 2,281. Keep in mind two months ago that number was around 1,500. That was the lowest number we have seen since the market reversal. This is my key to saying that January 2008 was the bottom. Closed sales for February are still way below where we should be, but better than January. Closed sales for Orlando Realtors stands at 876 so far with tomorrow being the last day to get February sales in the computer to count. The median price of those sales stands at $223,000 again up from January.
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