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April 25th, 2010 9:19 AM by David W. Welch
I mentioned in my blog on Friday that lending may be loosening up a bit here in Florida with the return of 95% LTV (loan to value) conventional financing returning. If financing becomes more accessible, we may start to see some really good numbers. As it is right now, sales have picked up considerably in the last two months. March saw over 2,600 sales with a median price around $110,000. So far in April 1,469 sales have been posted and with Friday being the 30th look for a lot more to close this week. I am still expecting at least 2,400 for the month. Currently, the median price is still right at the $110,000 mark showing no change. Of the closed sales about 2/3 are distressed with 654 bank owned and 328 short sales closed. Cash sales continue to be impressive with 714 just over 48.6% of all sales, as investors continue to pick up bargains.
Inventory continues to hover just over 16,000 with just under half of all active listings being distressed. There are currently 1,825 REO and 5,821 short sales on the market. While the number of short sales is down a bit, it is probably mostly due to stricter enforcement of MLS rules requiring properties to be placed in pending status. Pending sales hit a new milestone, with 11,005 properties currently under contract. Roughly 82% of all contracts are on distressed properties with 2,375 bank owned and 6,642 short sales pending. The percentage of short sales closing remains unimpressive with fewer than 5% the pendings closing so far this month. I have been watching this relationship for about a year, and typically 8%-10% of the pendings close in any given month.
Breaking the inventory down into REO, short sales and "normal" sales the numbers really start to stand out. In the last 12 months there have been 10,087 "normal" sales and there are 8,585 active listings representing a 10.2 month supply of "normal" sales. REO's are in much greater demand with 11,423 closed in the last 12 months and only 1,825 on the market representing a 1.9 month supply. On the other end of the spectrum are short sales. With only 5,238 closed short sales in the last 12 months and 5,821 active right now which is a 13.3 month supply available for sale. This puts a fine point on why buyers are having frustration trying to get a contract on an REO, and why short sales have been so frustrating for everyone. Overall, with 26,749 closed sales in the last 12 months there is about a 7.3 month supply of homes available for sale. We typically consider a six month supply to be a balanced market.
David Welch Real Estate Optimist, Orlando Real Estate