By signing into my site, you can access your favorites from any computer and get e-mail updates when new listings come in that match your recent searches.
April 28th, 2009 11:32 AM by David W. Welch
With just a few days left to close out this month, it is really shaping up to be another great sales month. So far this month 1,213 sales have been posted with a median price of $130,000. March closed out with 1,653 sales (that should be revised upward to about 1,700) and a median price of $137,000. A good number of sales close right at the end of the month. I know that I have two that should close in the next couple of days, so look for April to close in the 1,600 range as well. A year ago in April we closed only 1,231 sales with a median price of $211,000, so prices have absolutely plummeted in our market over the last year. The good news is that the sales pace we are on right now should have our market at an equillibrium point within about a year.
There has been a lot of press about the number of foreclosures picking up significantly since the moratorium has been lifted, but I have not seen evidence of it in our local statistics so far. Of the closed sales 700 have been distressed sales or 57.7% of the total closed with 510 being bank owned and the other 190 being other distressed (short sales). The number of shorts is actually quite a bit higher than last months 111, so maybe the banks are finally getting it and closing these deals. For several months now, distressed properties have accounted for between 55% and 60% of our closed deals. Pending sales continue to run up with 5,814 pending contracts, that is up from 4,906 last month. There have been 2,983 new contracts written so far this month which is also up from March's 2,956. Of the pendings 65.3% are distressed properties accounting for 3,798 contracts with 1,478 or 38.9% of the distressed being bank owned. So, even with the increased short sale closings they remain the bottleneck in the process. (Roughly 61% of the distressed pendings and only 27% of the distressed closings are short sales.)
The active inventory of homes for sale continues to drop with only 20,479 currently active in the MLS this morning. That is a decline of nearly 1,000 homes from March's 21,448. I expect that number will probably drop some more over the next few days. As it stands right now, if we close this month with 1,600 sales the months of inventory will be down to 12.8 which is only slightly lower than March's 12.98. However, I expect sales to exceed 1,600 and the inventory to drop a bit more, so look for the months supply to dip lower. Of the active listings only 7,785 are distressed which is 38% of the total and only 1,312 are bank owned which is roughly 17% of the total distressed. The total percentage of distressed properties for sale is in line with the last several months and the number of bank owned is actually down a few percentage points. If the banks could get their shorts and REO's closed in a timely manner, we would be seeing 2,000 closed sales a month. At that pace we would take two and a half months off putting us at a 10.25 months supply.
David Welch, Real Estate Optimist, @RealtyOptimist