So far this month (May 2009) there have been 1,328 closed sales with a median price of $129,950. Of the closed sales, 783 are distressed properties making up 59% of all the closings. That is a little higher than the 57% we have been seeing for several months. Pending sales are crazy with 6,631 under contract right now. That is about a 3.5 month supply of homes under contract. Of those, 4,457 are distressed properties or 67%, which is right in line with what we have been averaging. Active listings have continued to drop, although more slowly in the last week or so. Currently, there are 19,424 active listings with 38% being distressed properties. The 38% is a little lower than the 40% that we have had since last quarter of 2008. That number of active listings will likely fall after the end of the month as listings expire and are withdrawn from the market.
Orlando Real Estate, David Welch Real Estate Optimist, @RealtyOptimist
I know that you may find it hard to believe, but there have been acts of fraud in real estate transactions. Specifically, there have been acts of loan fraud where values of homes have been falsely inflated. I have no idea what percentage of transactions have closed over the years that fall into this type of scheme, but I have heard the 2% floated out there as an estimate. I have also heard that out of the hundreds of thousands of closings back in the boom there were about half a dozen frauds prosecuted. That does not mean that only six were perpetrated, but my point is that it is a very small number.
In comes the Attorney General of NY. Is that the same guy that got rid of the trans fat in my KFC original recipe? I already don't like him. I don't pretend to know how this came to fruition, but in the end a whole new set of procedures came into being for obtaining appraisals for certain loans. It is known as the Home Valuation Code of Conduct or HVCC. Essentially, it is meant to put lenders and appraisers at arms length to prohibit or at least limit the possibility of collusion to inflate values of properties being financed.
To pull off this type of loan fraud, you pretty much need the buyer, lender, appraiser and buyer's real estate agent to be involved. If the buyer is not involved then, they have to be completely unaware of the internet. An easy check of internet will yield all types of sites eagerly waiting to show what homes are for sale and sold and how much they are valued. That still means that you have to have a lender and appraiser and a real estate agent who are all crooks. In Florida, the appraiser and the agent are both licensed by the state. They have had criminal background checks, fingerprinted and have at least some degree of education regarding these illegal activities. If the lender is a mortgage broker, they too have gone through the licensing process.
HVCC seeks to separate the lender from the appraiser by creating an intermediary that orders the appraisal on behalf of the lender. This adds a layer to the process which adds expense to the borrower/buyer and time which is always an enemy of the real estate transaction. Check out this link to a website that seeks to have the current HVCC rules repealed. This went into effect May 1st, and I am going through a deal right now that has been delayed as a direct result. The lender ordered the appraisal through the intermediary. The order was placed with an appraiser. I met him at my listing to let him in to do his inspection of the property. The lender had know idea who he was and had no contact information for him at all. The inspection was done on May 15th. The lender did not think to contact me to let me know that they still did not have a copy of the appraisal as of May 28th. They have the file completely ready for closing with that one exception. They have been contacting the intermediary, the intermediary claims they have been trying to get in touch with the appraiser, the appraiser says he had been trying to reach the intermediary for a copy of the contract.
This is just one example of how these new rules are making things more difficult to solve a small problem that has been blown out of proportion. Politically, it sounds great to fight corruption in the system. There are better ways to deal with this like aggressively investigating the few deals that do pop up. That way everybody does not have to pay for the crimes of a few.
Talk.Realtor.com is the official blogsite for www.Realtor.com, the number one real estate website in the world. For the seventh time now, not that I am counting, one of my blog posts has been featured on this site. You can read what I had to say about home affordability and first time home buyers. It is great for my website when one of my posts is featured by the folks at www.realtor.com. I hope a lot of people get something out of what I am writing. Once in a while, I will hear from someone who tells me that they read my blog and appreciate the information that I am passing on.
With all the negative spin on real estate news that comes out, I just like to try and put a different and hopefully optimistic face on things. Back in graduate school in an investments class, I heard of a long term study the University of Chicago conducted. They looked at virtually every type of investment that you can make including: stocks, bonds, funds, commodities, art, wine, coins, stamps, etc. Of course, real estate was in this study as well. There is a term in investing called the "efficient frontier" that exists where you optimize your return for a given level of risk, conversely you minimize risk for a given level of return. In this study they sought to create different portfolios of investments that would exist on this efficient frontier. There was one investment, as I recall only one, that was a part of every efficient portfolio - real estate.
That is why I am so optimistic that real estate will make a strong comeback. Fundamentally, it is a stable investment that should be a part of everyone's financial plan at some point in their life. Like any other investment, there are risks associated with real estate. I believe the biggest risks are liquidity risk and re-investment risk. The recent drop in prices is actually a result of these other two risks. The inventory of homes for sale sky-rocketed when flippers pulled out of the market. Investors found it harder to re-invest because prices were going up so fast, and the people that did buy at the high end found it hard to liquidate their holdings as the number of people who could afford to buy at the higher prices started to dropping. These two factors lead to a tremendous oversupply. The only way, short of government intervention, to reduce the supply was for prices to come down. So, the pendulum has swung back in the other direction.
This appears to be a potpourri of topics, but inevitably these three topics come together quite often. The median price here in Orlando is roughly half of the peak. Actually, it is a little less than half of the $264,400 in July of 2007. I think that price was just an anomaly, since prices were bouncing around $250,000 from the second half of 2006 through the first half of 2007 with this one spike. Never the less, that was our highest median price here in Orlando. March’s median was $132,000, April $130,000 and so far in May with over 1,100 closed sales posted so far it stands again at $130,000. With prices so far down the affordability index is running very close to 200. What that means is the median wage earner can almost afford to purchase two median priced homes.
There are two groups that are driving the sales of the lower priced homes; investors and first time home buyers. First time buyers are taking advantage of bank owned and short sales which are often priced at the lower end of the market. Many times the first time buyers are being beaten out by investors paying cash for REO’s. So short sales seem to be plan B for a lot of first time buyers. Unfortunately, they may run out of time waiting for the seller’s bank to OK the deal. To qualify for the first time home buyer tax credit, you must close by the end of November. That seems like plenty of time, but it really is only six months away. Considering most short sales I have been involved with have taken three to eight months to get the approval plus another 30-45 days to close, I think contracting on a short sale may be pushing it. Keep in mind the bank could deny the short sale altogether or approve the short at a higher price. I just had the latter happen on one of my short sales in Baldwin Park.
For those of you still waiting to see what is going to happen, I have another statistic that I have been looking at. It is called the cap rate, and it is the capitalization rate or rate of return that real estate investors look at when pricing a potential investment property. I am seeing over and over again that returns of around 8% seem to be popping up. The median rent in Orlando is running around $1,100 for a typical 3/2. You could expect at $130,000 purchase price to pay around $1,950 in property taxes per year plus another $750 for insurance. If you take the $13,200 annual rent less the $2,700 in taxes and insurance you are left with net operating income of $10,500. Divide the net operating income by 8% cap rate and you end up at $131,250. I see this in the condo sector a lot with prices running around $60,000 for a 2/2 which will rent for $800/mo. Between condo fees and taxes the $9,600 annual rent is reduced in half to around $4,800 divided by 8% puts you back at the $60,000.
Sales keep chugging along here in Orlando. We just crossed over the 1,000 mark again this month. Right now closed sales stand at 1,032 with a median sales price of $129,950. March ended with a median price of $132,000, April posted a median price of $130,000. It certainly appears that the bleeding has slowed if not stopped. Unemployment numbers were a little better too, but one number does not make a trend. The inventory continues to decline as sales maintain their improved pace compared with last years numbers. The current number of active listing 19,494 is around 700 fewer than where we ended April.
Banks unwillingness to make investor loans on condos, along with the much higher down payment requirements for owner occupied condos continues to push condo values down. I don't think the banks have figured it out yet, that not providing financing on condos forces the values down. That, in turn, puts more owners upside down in their units forcing more short sales and people trying to re-negotiate their mortgages or just walking away. This leads to more foreclosures that are purchased by investors. That puts more rentals on the market driving rents down. Lower rents mean the investors will pay less to maintain their required returns. Money these days is cheap, but definitely not easy if you are buying a condo. By the way FHA is contributing to this issue with more restrictive guidelines.
The Case-Schiller folks think there are 2 million too many homes for sale nationwide. I believe the number is only 1 million. I have been saying for months, if the government really wants to turn things around in a hurry buy up 1 million foreclosed properties and hold them off the market. $300 billion would buy them and provide for holding costs for a couple of years, but I don't think it would take that long for market recovery. I am hearing sales are picking up all around the country which will speed things along.
Sorry for rambling. The good news is the sales are continuing at a good pace, inventory continues to decline and prices are no longer in a free fall. If money would get a little looser and the government would take some of the properties out of the system we could really turn things around quickly.
Check out my demo video for House Hunters on HGTV. I will be helping a couple purchase their first home here in the Orlando area. Which home will they choose? You will have to wait for the show, which we have not even been selected for yet. Wish us luck. Here is the link to my YouTube video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhyJaxxGy0Y
Orlando Real Estate, Real Estate Optimist, @RealtyOptimist
If you are looking for a terrific location, with excellent schools, a big yard, on a cul-de-sac with lots of room, this is the home for you. For the detailed listing on 705 Conesus Lane just click. I have lots of pictures of this fabulous five bedroom, four bathroom home. Virtually everything has been remodeled in this lovingly cared for property. Solid surface counters sit on refinished cabinets in the kitchen and baths. The bonus room, fifth bedroom and fourth bathroom make a professional and tasteful addition to the existing home. The big fenced backyard has plenty of play space and still has a heated, screened pool with lots of deck area. This much space, with so many luxury features is a great buy at $529,900.
I was out showing properties in Baldwin Park this morning, and I have just a quick minute before my next appointment. I wanted to comment on some of the terrific homes for sale in there right now. The inventory of properties has really dropped over the last couple of months, and the builders are closing out some of their inventory right now. Centerline homes just has a handful of units left across the street from Audubon Park Elementary School. They will have new buildings coming out of the ground in the next six to eight months, but expect some price increases. Yes, you heard that correctly. They are expecting to be priced somewhat higher. Personally, I think that may be a bit pre-mature. However, if they don't begin construction for eight months and it takes six months to build they may just be timing things about right. I expect within a year we should see a balanced market here in Orlando. Normally in a balanced market you would expect to see fairly flat prices, but I feel like we have over corrected here in terms of price. To me, that means we could see a bit of an increase in prices next year as the inventory and prices find an equilibrium point.
David Welch, Real Estate Optimist, @RealtyOptimist
I cannot speak for other markets, but here in Orlando our market place is being driven by investors and first time home buyers. Some investors are seasoned professionals, and others went to some seminar or bought the cd/dvd on how to make a bunch of money in real estate. Others are just looking at real estate as a more solid investment right now than the stock market with better return potential than the bond market. The first group of investors know the answers, the second think they know the answers and the last group ask a lot of questions.
First time buyers have a lot of questions too, and that is great. Thanks to the internet there is a lot more data for you to go through, and blogs like mine with information to help you understand the data you are looking at. Unfortunately, there is a lot of stuff on the internet that I think just confuses or overwhelms people. There also can be significant differences in markets, and what the current real estate environment is. Here are a few questions that I get frequently from first time home buyers.
Are REO's and Short Sales a better deal? The short answer quite often is yes, but not always. You do have to be careful, because REO's and short sales are as-is, and there are likely to be problems with these homes since they usually have not been maintained properly.
How do I get the tax credit? First, you cannot have owned a home in the last three years, and you must close by November 30, 2009. There are income restrictions, and the credit is not necessarily $8,000. It is 10% of the purchase price up to $8,000. So, if you buy a $50,000 home the most your credit can be is $5,000.
Can I use the tax credit as my downpayment? Not yet, but I have heard that there may be some changes coming that could allow that.
Will the seller pay my closing costs? That depends on the seller. Typically, in the Orlando real estate market, sellers are being asked and most appear to be agreeing to pay some buyer's costs. The most common thing I am seeing is 3% of the purchase price.
How much with the seller come down? That also depends on the seller. On average we are seeing between 8-10% being negotiated on the price. That varies by neighborhood, and the average means virtually nothing. If the home is priced correctly to begin with, it may sell for full price. If the home is way overpriced, they may have to come down a lot more than 8-10% or just not sell the home.
What is the problem with short sales? A short sale requires the sellers lender to agree to take less than what is owed to them. Before they agree to it, the PMI company has to agree and the lender that holds the security has to agree to it. I say there is nothing short about a short sale, since they will take you a minimum of 3 months to obtain that approval. I recently obtained approval on a contract that was written in September of last year. Eight months of waiting, and I have heard of many worse than that.
Is this the bottom of the market? This is a completely different question than "is this a good time to buy?" The recession was correctly predicted by the brightest economists the government could find nine months after it started. In my opinion, we are actually below the bottom here in Orlando, but we may be on our way back up.
Is this a good time to buy? Absolutely, for four reasons: 1) inventory is still high, right now we have about a 12 month supply of homes for sale (a year ago it was almost 24 months); 2) prices are ridiculously low, the affordability index is 195 meaning the median wage earner can almost afford to buy two median priced homes.; 3) interest rates are being held artificially low by the Fed, last month's average rate was 4.87%; 4) the tax credit is free money, but it is gone at the end of November.
Here they are, the official Orlando real estate numbers for April 2009 as prepared by the Orlando Regional Realtor Association. There were 1,741 closed sales posted by the end of last month (look for that to be revised up over 1,800 for late filings) with a median sales price of $132,900 (expect that to be revised downward to $130,000). These sales took 104 days to contract compared with 103 in March, so not much change there.
The inventory of home available for sale dropped more than I recall in the last couple of years. It dropped to 20,194 from 21,448 in March. There were 3,715 new listings last month compared with 4,526 in April of 2008 which continues a trend we have been seeing for several months now. At the same time new contracts are going through the roof with 3,412 new contracts written last month compared with 2,012 from the prior April. Total pending contracts continues to climb with 5,818 properties currently under contract.
Last months closings represents better than a 41% increase over April of 2008 while sale so far this year are up more than 42% compare with a year earlier. The median price is around 37% lower than last April. So lower prices and and lower interest rates are teaming up to put our local affordability index up to 194.01. In other words, the median wage earner can almost afford to purchase two median priced homes. We are literally having a two for one sale in Orlando. Even first time home buyer affordability is up to 137.96, and we are seeing first time home buyers taking advantage of these prices, rates and the first time home buyer tax credit.
The official numbers are out, and I'll have all of them a little later today. No big surprises compared with what I have already been reporting, just a little more detail. Sales are way up, prices came down just a little more and pending contracts are through the roof. In the mean time check out my new listing at 705 Conesus Lane in Tuscawilla in Winter Springs. This home is absolutely gorgeous and loaded with features.
David Welch, Real Estate Optimist, @realtyoptimist
This is an example of how an investment in a condo in Orlando could perform. The first thing you should know is that there is no condo financing for investors. I don't care what your brother-in-law said or anyone else for that matter. If you are purchasing a condo for investment in Orlando financing is gone, but that is OK. The lack of financing has forced banks to drop the the prices on their condo REO's into the cellar. I regularly see two bedroom, two bathroom condos that sold for $150,000 to $200,000 a few years ago priced in the $50,000's and $60,000's. There are condos in the $10,000's and $20,000's, but they are generally not very good locations which effects the rents. You can pick up a unit for $60,000 in a decent area that will generate an $850/mo rent. Again this is an example, but a very realistic one. Out of that $850 you will have condo fees of $250 and taxes of $200 per month. The taxes are high because the assessments are still based on last years prices, so it is likely that they would go down next year but don't count on it.
Based on those numbers you are cash flowing $400/mo. In twelve and a half years you have your entire investment returned to you. That is an 8% return on your investment. But wait there is more. You also get to depreciate that property almost $2,200 and write off the taxes of $2,400. That is a $4,600 write off on your taxes each year. If you are in the 25% tax bracket you just reduced your tax liability by $1,150 each year. In the end it you factor in the taxes paid on the income and the tax savings created by the write offs, you end up with an after tax return of 7.9%. That return is just rental income from the property with no assumption of appreciation.
When you figure that Orlando is still one of the most preferred places to live, the economy will get better, and financing will return for condominiums there is almost certainly going to be some appreciation on these properties given an appropriate time horizon. In other words do not expect to flip these properties or sell it in a year or two. Real estate investments are typically longer term investments that must cash flow to make sense. Any investment involves risk, so make sure you speak to your tax consultant about potential impacts to your tax situation. Also, work with a Realtor that knows your local market.
There were 117 sales recorded in Baldwin Park in the MLS in 2008 with a median sales price of $395,000. So far in 2009 there have been 48 closed sales with a median price of $354,950. There are 60 contracts pending, and we just dropped below 100 active listings with 99 homes for sale in the neighborhood. The average list prices from last year to this year among the sold properties dropped from $488,787 to $466,078. The pendings average list price is much lower at $387,388 reflecting the many condos and townhomes that are currently under contract. The active listings average list price is much higher at $672,333 reflecting the greater number of single family homes currently on the market.
The active listings range from a 1,024 square foot, two bedroom, two bathroom condo in Enders Place listed for $120,000 to the massive 7,316 square foot custom, four bedroom, five and a half bath home on the lake for $3,994,000. There are currently 15 homes in Baldwin Park listed over one million dollars. There are 35 listed for more than $500,000 with one townhome over the half million dollar mark. If you are interested in a home in Baldwin Park, I would love to speak with you about the neighborhood. My family has lived here for four years now, and we enjoy the convenient location the neighborhood amenities and the terrific schools.
My day started early today, and yet I am still feeling behind. I have to stop and post my blog, because this is part of my business plan. I spoke to a few groups of Realtors last week about blogging, and many have the same question. How do you have time to sit and blog about Orlando real estate every day? It is just part of my daily routine, and an important part of how I fulfill my personal mission statement. "I help others around me make better decisions." That is really what I do. As a Realtor, I advise buyers and sellers of what is going on in the Orlando real estate market. I provide not only data, but information and my professional opinion of that information to people every day. My Orlando real estate blog just allows me to share that information with a wider audience.
When I share my experiences and observations, people e-mail and call me to help them with their individual real estate needs. A lot of the time I am hired to help them, but sometimes they are already working with someone or they are Realtors themselves just needing some advice. That is all OK with me. Mark Twain said if you help enough people get what they want, you'll get what you want. I am in the real estate business as my business, and that business has to be profitable or I can't pay the bills. That does not mean that I can't help others along the way. I have always found it to be good for business to put your customers first. The very first contract I ever wrote was for someone buying a property listed with Dick Dapore. When I presented the offer to Dick and told him it was my first deal he told me this: "Take care of your customers and they will take care of you." I don't know if he made that up himself or was just passing along words of wisdom that he had picked up. I do know that no matter how busy the week is, I try to take the time to pass along something useful.
Now back to work, I have to present an offer, follow up again on an offer I submitted on an REO last week, try to keep another deal together, follow up on an REO closing that I have had under contract for three months, and let my sellers know that I received word from Countrywide that their short sale has been approved.
The following is being posted with permission from Paul James with the Mesothelioma Cancer Center. My own grandfather suffered from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease caused by years of working with asbestos building ships in WWII.
Located in the central part of Florida, the city of Orlando is renowned for hosting world class theme parks, hospitality hub and diverse rural areas. What potential home buyer would not want to call this city their home? The journey to purchasing a home is an enjoyable time in one’s life. But it is one that will bring many additional responsibilities. Having the assistance of an honest real estate agent can make all of the difference during this process.Often appearing in roof shingles, popcorn ceilings, piping and insulation, asbestos became one of the most popular building applications of the 20th century. Due to its flame resistant and highly durable qualities, asbestos was the ideal form of insulation for many industries. One of the main things that can go unnoticed is taking simple precautions to avoid asbestos exposure.Potential Orlando homeowners or those seeking to remodel older homes should be aware that homes built prior to 1980 may still harvest asbestos materials. This should not make you jump out of your chair because asbestos exposure is easily avoidable by taking simple precautions.Asbestos in the HomeIf you locate any suspected asbestos in the home, most experts suggest leaving it un-disturbed until a home inspector can examine your property, take evaluations and determine the safest course of action. Sometimes the best action is no action at all. Disturbing asbestos in good condition may cause its fibers to be released into the air.Long term exposure to damaged airborne asbestos fibers can lead to the development of a severe lung ailment known as mesothelioma. With a latency period that can last 20 to 50 years, this makes mesothelioma prognosis from physicians a difficult task. There are a number of factors that can impact mesothelioma survival rate. These factors include latency period, age of diagnosis and cigarette smoking.Healthy TipsRemoval of asbestos in public facilities, workplaces and homes should be performed by licensed abatement contractors as long as the National Emissions Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) are not violated. They must wear protective equipment such as masks and gloves to avoid any exposure. The materials should be removed in as large pieces as possible and places in disposable bags.If asbestos is removed, green forms of insulation should be used as replacements. These include the use implementation of recycled building materials such as lcynene foam, cotton fiber and cellulose. These alternatives not only allow for a healthy and safe home, but can bring down annual energy costs.For example, the use of cotton fiber foam has demonstrated to reduce energy costs by 25 % per year. As education and technology of green sustainable practices increase, the numbers will continue to rise.There is no need for any products used in construction to be made from asbestos; yet over 3,000 work and home-based materials still contain this toxin.Recently, congress passed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act into law. Included in this act were extensions to the tax incentives placed for energy efficiency in 2005, as well as new credits for homeowners who remodel or build using eco-sustainable methods. Existing homes are eligible for a series of efficiency measures that pertain to the home shell (Insulation, Windows, Sealing) worth 30% of the installed cost (materials only, labor is not included in the credit basis).
This is just a quick note to introduce a new service I am going to be providing. Carmen Serrano Giubilei with Remax 200 Realty is going to be syndicating my ActiveRain blog in Spanish. You will be able to find the Spanish language version of my blog at www.activerain.com/carmengiubilei. Check it out, and let me know what you think. Carmen will also be blogging some of her own thoughts from time to time.
Happy Cinco de Mayo
Official numbers of course will not be out until next week, and I will report these again in a couple of days because the board pulls the data on the 5th. I just wanted to take a quick look, because we wrote a lot of contracts last month (over 3,000) and I phone and e-mail have been going gangbusters the last couple of weeks. Sales have been rockin for with seven months of year over year improvements and April was no exception. So far 1,704 closed sales have been posted with a median price of $132,900. That price is down from $137,000 in March, but the percentage of sold homes that are distressed properties remained pretty consistent at 56.7% There was an article in yesterday's paper that I shared on my facebook and @realtyoptimist. Banks are backing off the foreclosures and working with more homeowners to keep them in their homes.
More good news that shows how strong sales are and how slow the banks are is the pending sales contracts. There are currently 5,838 pending sales with 3,884 or 66.5% of them being distressed again this number is pretty consistent with what we have seen for the past several months. One quick note on this, because I have heard this brought up a few times. There are buyers putting in multiple offers on short sales who have no intention of closing on all the properties they offer on. I have absolutely no feel for how much of this is going on, but anyone doing this should be very careful that they are protecting themselves. I estimate that only about 1/3 of the short sales are getting closed, but that is more of an educated guess than anything else. Continuing with the good news about the Orlando real estate market, inventory is down about 6% from March's 21,448 to 20,170 as of this morning. That represents an 11.86 month supply of homes available for sale at April's sales pace. If inventory continues to drop at this pace, the Orlando real estate market could reach equilibrium (6 months supply of homes) by the end of the year.
Come out today to the Orlando Regional Realtor Association headquarters on Lee Rd. I will be speaking about ActiveRain blogging this afternoon from 1:00 to 4:00pm. There are three other speakers covering other topics like Twitter.
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