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April 14th, 2008 8:29 AM by David W. Welch
A recent poll found that 60% have no plans to buy a home in the next two years, but 11% are certain they will be buying a home soon. The 60% is up from 53% in September of 2006, and the 11% is down from 15% from the same time. I would love to have more historical numbers - which I am sure nobody has. But I do know that the average time in a home is about 11-12 years which means only about 10% turn over in any given year. I would expect that outside of the 2004-2006 time frame 60% and 11% probably are not too far off normal. In fact if I had to been asked to guess the results of this poll, I would have guessed higher than 60%.
The truth is that the market is down in most areas around the country, and Orlando is no exception. The flip side of that is that buyers have more homes to choose from, and motivated sellers willing to work with them. Interest rates are still really low, but may not be able to stay that low for long. Prices may come down a little bit more, but builder inventories are coming down which mean the total supply of available homes is going down too. Reporting statistics with no benchmarks does not really report anything of value.