Orlando Real Estate

2008 Closing Strong 2009 A Stabilization Year

December 29th, 2008 12:02 PM by David W. Welch

So far in December there have been 906 sales closed with a median sales price of $169,990. That is up just a bit from November's $168,000, but we have not closed out the month just yet. We could end December anywhere between $168,000 and $170,000 with just a few sales making the difference. It does support my thought that we have hit the bottom, since December is usually the weakest month of the year. January is usually pretty close, so if we are still around this same price point 30 days from now, watch for prices to rebound a little into the $180,000 range. Below is my prediction for 2009.

I think we hit the price bottom in October, and in fact we have over corrected a little. I expect that prices will remain in the $160-$170 range (median) through February, but we will see them get back into the $180 range by March. Sales will begin picking back up in January with things getting closer to 1,400 - 1,600 sales / month by March/April time frame. This higher level of sales will continue through August pushing inventory down to 22,000 before the end of the year. Foreclosures are going to continue to keep prices below the $200K level through 2010, unless investors start buying them up faster. Interest rates are dropping like crazy, and are now below 5%. I think 2009 will be the stabilization year, so things will be better but prices will remain flat.

David Welch, Remax 200 Realty, Orlando Real Estate

Posted in:General
Posted by David W. Welch on December 29th, 2008 12:02 PM

Interesting analysis, though I have to point out that you have stated several times in the past that we have hit "bottom". Your March 2008 post regarding the Arthur Rutenberg interview comes to mind.
Posted by Jay on December 29th, 2008 11:30 PM

I would have to go back and re-read my own posts, but I believe that I called the period between September of 2007 and January 2008 the "sales bottom". I had expected the "price bottom" this past summer, but did not account for the over correction that has occurred. The past three months, I believe we have been at the "price bottom", and will likely stay there until March 2009. The bailout panic was something I just did not see coming earlier this year. Good Call.
Posted by David Welch on December 30th, 2008 9:38 AM


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