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December 29th, 2008 12:02 PM by David W. Welch
So far in December there have been 906 sales closed with a median sales price of $169,990. That is up just a bit from November's $168,000, but we have not closed out the month just yet. We could end December anywhere between $168,000 and $170,000 with just a few sales making the difference. It does support my thought that we have hit the bottom, since December is usually the weakest month of the year. January is usually pretty close, so if we are still around this same price point 30 days from now, watch for prices to rebound a little into the $180,000 range. Below is my prediction for 2009.
I think we hit the price bottom in October, and in fact we have over corrected a little. I expect that prices will remain in the $160-$170 range (median) through February, but we will see them get back into the $180 range by March. Sales will begin picking back up in January with things getting closer to 1,400 - 1,600 sales / month by March/April time frame. This higher level of sales will continue through August pushing inventory down to 22,000 before the end of the year. Foreclosures are going to continue to keep prices below the $200K level through 2010, unless investors start buying them up faster. Interest rates are dropping like crazy, and are now below 5%. I think 2009 will be the stabilization year, so things will be better but prices will remain flat.
David Welch, Remax 200 Realty, Orlando Real Estate