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March 4th, 2009 9:14 AM by David W. Welch
I was interviewed for an article in the Orlando Sentinel that came out last week. In the article, I said that Baldwin Park was not immune to the current housing situation in that prices had come down pretty significantly over the last year. After that I started looking at the inventory compared to sales, and there have been about 70 closed sales posted on the MLS in the last six months. There are 130 properties for sale, which means there is a little over 11 months supply of homes available for sale in the neighborhood. If you keep up on your real estate statistics, you already know that the benchmark we look for is a six months supply of homes. At a six months supply, we generally consider the market to be in balance. Considering that, it is understandable that prices have come down.
The plus side (since I am the Real Estate Optimist there has to be an upside) is that the overall Orlando market was sitting on over a 20 month supply of homes for sale. That number is getting better too with nearly 1,200 closed sales posted for February, which is about a 25% increase over last February. Additionally, the inventory of homes available dropped a few hundred to just over 22,000. That will drive the overall months supply to around 18, and I see that improving through the summer selling season.
If you read my posts, you may be wondering why the number of February sales keeps rising. The MLS rules say that closed sales are supposed to be posted in the MLS within two business days. So, all of February's sales should have been in by yesterday. Of course, a lot of sales occur at the end of the month and do not get posted until later. The Orlando Regional Realtor Association waits until the 5th of the month to pull the sales numbers to account for as many of the late entries as possible. I check the number starting about half way through the month to see where we are headed. I continue checking more frequently once the month is closed to provide the most updated information possible.
David Welch, Real Estate Optimist