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March 1st, 2010 9:43 AM by David W. Welch
You have to love the experts that predict that prices have already fallen. I would guess a lot of people do not read articles very critically that they find in the paper (if anyone still reads the paper) or online. This article was just on Yahoo real estate http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/duck-watch-out-for-falling-home-prices from CNNMoney.com. I cannot comment on the particular markets highlighted in the article, but I pulled up the numbers for Orlando. They show a median price for the third quarter of 2009 of $168,000, and I assume that is an annual number. The monthly median prices that I track were already in the $125,000 range well before September of last year. Last month's median was around $105,000 and is actually well below the projected 15.7% drop forecast in the article.
My point with this is two fold. First, get information about your local market from a local source. You will be able to get more current information that is more relevant to your personal real estate needs. Second, when you read these types of articles ask where the data is coming from and how current and accurate is the information. I rarely find any of these articles that explain how they come up with their forecast. Negative news sells ads. I do have to say that I am thankful Orlando was not one of the featured areas expected to be hit the worst. Everyone knows that Orlando realty searches usually top the charts, so we are a favorite target of the bad news bunch. Personally, I see Orlando poised for a lot of improvement in 2010. New short sale guidelines begin soon, and should help us get through the tremendous backlog of short sale contracts pending. As the weather begins to improve, I also expect employment numbers to begin improving which will jumpstart things.
Orlando Real Estate, David Welch Real Estate Optimist