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December 5th, 2008 10:53 AM by David W. Welch
Official numbers will not be out until later next week, but I like to keep track of them myself on the MLS as you know. So far, as of this morning there have been 1055 posted sales for November with a median price of $167,050. That is almost an $11,000 drop from October's $178,000. If you go back a few weeks you can read my post about why I think we have hit bottom, but one thing I had not counted on was the potential for over correction in the market place. I am not really sure just how far prices could tumble before the market stabilizes. I can tell you that the median list price for these closed sales was $174,900 and the median list price of the 3,601 homes that currently have pending contracts is $170,000. Could we see $160,000 for December?
There are currently, 25,806 active listings in the tri-county area (Orange, Seminole and Osceola) of which 6,434 are in a distressed category. For my purposes I am counting anything listed as pre-foreclosure, in foreclosure or bank owned as distressed. This is 24.9% of the total number of properties listed in the MLS. There are 3,601 contracts pending with 1,633 or 45.3% being distressed. The big change is coming in the sold properties. With 1,057 (yes two more sales posted while I was writing this) closed sales 44.3% or 468 were distressed properties. Of the distressed properties most 80.7% or 378 were categorized as bank owned. If you are a seller reading this, please note that the foreclosures are your competition. They may need a little work, but many if not most of the foreclosures I have been showing appear in fine condition.
Another key factor affecting prices is the type of buyer that is out there making purchases right now. Out of my last three closings: one was a couple moving down from NYC that paid cash for a new home, one was an investor paying cash for a bank forclosure, and the third was a first time home buyer purchasing with an FHA loan. I am working on offers right now on two of my listings; one is an investor and the other appears to be a first time buyer going FHA. One of the top searches people are using to find my website is for first time home buyer down payment assistance or first time home buyer tax credit. One of the other top searches is for properties in foreclosure or bank owned.
David Welch, Orlando Real Estate