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June 1st, 2009 9:16 AM by David W. Welch
I like numbers, because numbers are numbers. People may come to different conclusions about what the numbers tell them, but in the end the numbers are what they are. In May of 2008 there were 25,436 active listings on the market. Last month there were 20,194 and as of this morning the number is down to 19,132. That is a net reduction in inventory of 6,304 or almost 25% in the last year. The reduction in inventory appears to be picking up too with a decline of 1,062 coming in just the last month. With the posted sales so far of 1,581 for May we have a 12.1 month supply of inventory. We typically have another 200 to 400 sales posted after the end of the month, which should drive the months supply down below 11 months.
The posted sales of 1,581 is just 160 off April's final number, so it will probably end up slightly better than April. It is already 234 more than May of 2008's 1,347. We continue to see year over year improvements in sales which has been a trend since the last quarter of 2008. These are just the closed sales. Pending sales have shot up to 6,603 which is up from 5,818 in April and 3,225 in May of last year. The last time I checked nearly 3,000 of these are identified as short sales, so it is hard to say when of if they will close. Real estate is all about supply and demand, and to have this kind of turn around in sales required a substantial decrease in price. At this point though it appears that price drops are slowing considerably. Last May the median price was $211,400, and this May they look to be $130,000. That is a 38.5% drop in prices in the last year. However, April's median price was $132,900, so May had a very modest drop compared to April.
Individual neighborhoods and areas are starting to see different results. I was quoted in the Orlando Sentinel earlier this year as saying "Baldwin Park is not immune" to the factors effecting the Orlando real estate market. That is true, but the neighborhood has gotten very popular lately. The inventory of homes available for sale has dropped from around 165 earlier this year to 100 today. There are 63 pending sales and 64 closed so far this year too. At the current sales pace there is a 5.55 month supply of homes available for sale in Baldwin Park right now. Although, a lot of those are in the higher price ranges. Most of the sales are happening in the more affordably priced condos and townhomes.
Orlando Real Estate, David Welch Real Estate Optimist, @RealtyOptimist